Inventory Forecasting for Peptide Companies
Reactive reordering guarantees stockouts because lead times are never instant. This guide covers building a forecasting system that orders ahead of demand instead of chasing behind it.
Most early-stage peptide founders manage inventory reactively — reordering once stock visibly runs low or hits zero. This works until order volume grows enough that lead times start mattering more than intuition, at which point reactive ordering reliably produces stockouts.
Calculating Sell-Through Velocity
The foundation of forecasting is knowing how quickly each product actually sells — units per week or month, tracked per SKU rather than as an aggregate. This number, not gut feel, should drive every reorder decision.
Setting Reorder Thresholds Around Lead Time
Once sell-through velocity is known, the reorder point should be set high enough that a new order, placed today, arrives before existing stock runs out — accounting for the supplier's actual lead time, not an optimistic estimate of it.
Avoiding the Overstock Trap
Forecasting isn't only about preventing stockouts — ordering too far ahead ties up capital in inventory that may sit for months, especially for lower-velocity SKUs. The goal is a reorder point and quantity that minimizes both stockout risk and excess capital tied up in slow-moving stock.
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